Buttigieg Suspends: What Happens Now?
What happens to his delegates?
He gets to keep whatever delegates he has (and retain the right of approval over them when they are chosen between now and June), but the delegates themselves are free to vote for whomever they like on the first ballot.
They’re essentially old-style superdelegates.
When and where are his delegates chosen?
New Hampshire District (6 delegates): already chosen. They are:
Shanika Amarakoon
Alec Momenee-Duprie
Giovanna Komst
Johnnie Christensen
Kathleen O'Donnell
Alan Baker
Iowa District (9 delegates): District Conventions, April 13
New Hampshire At-Large/PLEO (3 delegates): chosen on April 25 by the 6 district-level delegates.
Nevada (3 delegates): State Convention, May 30
Iowa At-Large/PLEO (4-5 delegates): State Convention, June 13. (This is a full week after the final event in the Virgin Islands).
In prior years, when the Iowa and Nevada delegates weren’t pledged based on the caucus night results, it’s likely the later stages of the process would have reacted accordingly to Buttigieg’s suspension. This year, the system ensures that Buttigieg keeps his delegates (and effectively makes superdelegates out of them.)
Finally, note that if Buttigieg formally ends his campaign (not just suspends it) by the time one of these delegate selection processes rolls around, his At-Large delegates would be reapportioned among the other candidates as if he had not made it above the threshold. It’s unclear whether this would happen with the PLEO or district delegates, as well. Regardless, since the NH district delegates have already been chosen, he certainly gets to keep them.
What about early voting?
Buttigieg dropping out just two days before Super Tuesday means there may be a significant early vote for him in states that allow it.
Arkansas had early voting starting February 18 that ends tomorrow, March 2.
California had extensive early voting by mail starting February 3.
Colorado is almost exclusively vote-by-mail, starting February 10. Ballots need to be received by 7PM on March 3, so the vast majority of the votes have already been cast. (This may be Buttigieg’s best opportunity to get delegates after the end of his campaign). There is some limited in-person voting on Tuesday.
Maine had no-excuse absentee voting starting February 3. Maine has ranked-choice voting, but it is not used for delegate allocation purposes, so first-choice Buttigieg ballots are effectively wasted.
Minnesota had no-excuse absentee voting starting January 17.
North Carolina had early voting February 13-29, as well as no-excuse absentee voting starting January 13.
Oklahoma has no-excuse absentee voting by mail, as well as in-person days February 27-29.
Tennessee had early voting from February 12-25.
Texas had early voting February 18-28.
Utah is almost exclusively vote-by-mail, starting around February 11. One could drop off one’s ballot in person ending February 28 (March 2 in select locations). There is still in-person voting on Tuesday. This is another possible place where Buttigieg may pick up a delegate or two.
Vermont had early and no-excuse absentee voting starting January 18.
On the other hand, Virginia, Massachusetts, Alabama, and American Samoa don’t allow early or no-excuse absentee voting, though absentee voting was of course available except in American Samoa.
For elections after Tuesday:
Democrats Abroad has early voting by mail and email from February 18 - March 10.
March 10 primaries:
Idaho has early voting ending March 6. (The start varies by county, but began in Ada County on February 24.)
Michigan allows no-excuse absentee voting.
North Dakota allows voting by mail, January 20 - March 5.
Washington is a primarily vote-by-mail state, February 21-March 10.
March 17 primaries:
Arizona has early voting (in person and by mail) starting February 19.
Florida allows voting by mail; the ballots were mailed in early February. Early voting starts no earlier than March 2.
Illinois allows no-excuse absentee voting, starting March 6. Early voting varies by location, though Cook County will not start until March 2.
Ohio has no-excuse absentee and early voting, starting February 19.
April 4:
Alaska and Wyoming both have mail options that began in mid-February. However, both states used ranked-choice voting, so the impact should be limited.